Pak Armed forces launching Shaheen Missile

South Asia is a joint home to two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan. Both of them have strong enmity for each other since the partition of the Indian subcontinent and have resulted in three wars; 1948, 1965 and 1971 along with limited conflict of Kargil in 1999. India being one-fifth of Pakistan with a huge population makes it quite strong both in economic and conventional military terms and has nefarious designs right from the start.

This makes Pakistan vulnerable to a conventional military attack from India. In 1974, India tested its own nuclear bomb code-named “Smiling Buddha” in response to China causing alarm bells in the military circles of Pakistan and again in 1998, it did the same, which drew a response from Pakistan in the form of Chagai-I and Chagai-II. This nuclear rivalry is the by-product of Sino-American and Sino-Indian rivalry with China challenging the World power and India seeing Rising China as an imminent threat, resulting in a nuclear arms race.

Chinese Nuclear Capability

China began to pursue its nuclear program as a strategic deterrent against the USA in the post-Korean War scenario of the 1950s and especially after the Taiwan crisis when it was under a constant US nuclear threat. Through years of intensive research in the nuclear field, China tested its first nuclear bomb in 1964.  Since then China has traveled a lot in improving its arsenal to achieve multiple launches (Air, Ground and Sea launch capability) and second strike capability.

The former capability will allow China to launch its nuclear-laden missiles from three mediums; air, ground and sea, the later means that China will have the capability to absorb the first strike and then to retaliate with its nuclear arsenal. China has inducted cruise and Ballistic missiles in its inventory ranging up to 1000 miles and is constantly improving on it. They have the ability to carry the warheads and can strike any place at will.

China is also investing heavily in its space and counter space program with an aim to counter American missile defense system and has caused shivers in the Washington through its tests of anti-satellite and anti-missile missiles. China is believed to have more than 300 nuclear warheads which are under the command of Peoples Liberation Army’s China central military commission and China argues that these are only for defensive purposes promoting the doctrine of “No first use”. China is a part of IAEA, NSG and has acceded to NPT and CTBT.

Indian Nuclear Capability

Indians consider China a security threat for themselves and hence carried out nuclear tests in 1974 in response to the earlier Chinese nuclear tests. The nuclear test codenamed as “Smiling Buddha” drew huge criticism from the world community terming it as a violation of the NPT, though Indian government called it “Peaceful nuclear explosion”.

India waited till 1998 when it carried out five nuclear tests at a time which drew a response from Pakistan which in retaliation carried out 6 nuclear tests. Since then India has spent billions of dollars on its nuclear program. USA and India started negotiating a civil nuclear deal in 2005 and signed it in 2008 which can be called the worst example of the duplicity of American policy.

India which is not a signatory of NPT and CTBT and not a member of NSG got all the rights which the member states deserve. India has a stockpile of more than 100 nuclear warheads according to estimates and India is spending enormous money to expand and improve its nuclear program.
India claims that its nuclear program is for defensive purposes and advocates the doctrine of “No First Use”.

Pakistan’s nuclear capability

Pakistan and India are arch rivals and both of them consider each other as a security threat. India being a mighty conventional power with a huge army is a far bigger threat to Pakistan in wake of war. Thus Pakistan needed nuclear weapons to balance the strategic superiority of India. Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998 were an outright retaliation for the nuclear tests carried out by India a month prior.

According to international estimates, Pakistan is considered to have fastest-growing nuclear arsenal both in the region and in the world. According to these Pakistan will soon take over China, India and other nuclear powers in terms of stockpile which will give it a third number in terms of nuclear firepower.

Recently, Pakistan has moved towards Tactical weapons which are a counter strategy for Indian limited war doctrine. Pakistan nuclear program is under the supervision of Strategic plans division and currently, the stockpile is believed to be more than 100. There is no official nuclear doctrine but national security agencies considered “Responsibility” and “Restraint” as the main pillars of the nuclear doctrine.

Conclusion

All the above-mentioned three countries are deeply indulged in border and territorial disputes which make this region a hub of the nuclear threat. We need to move towards a nuclear-free region which will benefit all but politically it seems impossible.