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Post-2014 Scenario in Afghanistan

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Afghanistan and Pakistan are close neighbors with commonalities in religion, culture, and races. These similarities should have a good effect on the relations but have proved otherwise. When Pakistan came into being in 1947, Afghanistan claimed that Pakistani Pashtun areas up to Attock are part of the so-called greater Afghanistan. Afghanistan was the only country that resisted Pakistan’s admission into the UNO. Afghanistan also supported the Pashtun Nationalist Movement for the formation of Pakhtunistan. This sowed the seeds of hatred, which hurt both of us in coming years and still hurting.

The era of Communist government in Afghanistan and the Russian invasion provided Pakistan a chance to increase its influence at the cost of Russian-enmity. Pakistan started training Afghan insurgents against Sardar Daud (a staunch supporter of nationalist insurgents inside Pakistan), who was later murdered by the rival faction. In 1979, Russia invaded Afghanistan. Pakistan has been in the American block considered Soviet expansion a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. To defeat Russian invasion in Afghanistan, Pakistan started supporting Mujahideen factions overtly.

This overt support of Pakistan was backed by CIA for its own strategic interests. Mujahideen with the support of ISI, CIA and generous help of Saudi Monarchies inflicted a crushing on the Soviet Union. After the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan, Mujahideen factions started fighting against each other for influence in government. Countries in the region covertly or overtly supported one or the other faction. Pakistan tried to find a peaceful resolution to the internal conflict in Afghanistan but the process was not fruitful till Taliban took over the Kandahar and afterward Kabul.Taliban government was accepted by Pakistan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. These were the only three countries to accept their legitimacy.

In 2001, America blamed Osama Bin Ladin for horrific attacks on twin towers on World Trade Centre and launched air and ground operations against Taliban when they refused to hand over Osama Bin Ladin to America. Pakistan was between the devil and the deep sea, with their key ally, Taliban on one side and America on the other side. Pakistan sided with America after receiving threats from the former. Since that time America is fighting a long battle in Afghanistan against Taliban but has not been successful at all.

Due to this situation, Obama announced drawdown most of the American forces till 2014, leaving only a portion in the war-torn country. This drawdown in 2014 gave rise to a new great game in the region. Pakistan is the closest neighbor of Afghanistan and major business partner and thus has strategic interests in the region in wake of increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan. Another major area of concern is the influence of TTP in border areas of Afghanistan and its spillover into the border of Pakistan. Pakistan also wants to reach the Central Asian States, which is not possible without stable and peaceful Afghanistan.

This post-2014 scenario provides an opportunity for all the regional and international powers to join hands and stop interfering in the internal politics of Afghanistan but if the same great game of the 80s was repeated then it will strategic consequences not only for Pakistan but for the region and the world as a whole.

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